{
  "description": "Historical sovereign CDS anchor points from BIS, ECB, IMF, and crisis compilations. Used for euro-crisis charts; not tick-level time series.",
  "unit": "basis_points",
  "instrument": "5-year USD sovereign CDS",
  "crisis_peaks": {
    "date": "2011-09",
    "label": "September 2011 (euro-area stress peak)",
    "source_id": "citizendium_ecb",
    "note": "Compiled from ECB WP 1271, BIS Q4 2011, and euro-crisis literature summaries",
    "spreads": {
      "Greece": 7318,
      "Portugal": 1308,
      "Ireland": 978,
      "Italy": 503,
      "Spain": 429,
      "Cyprus": 185
    }
  },
  "cyprus_banking_peak": {
    "date": "2013-03",
    "label": "March 2013 (Cyprus banking crisis)",
    "source_id": "nber19125",
    "spread_bps": 1578
  },
  "series": {
    "Greece": [
      { "date": "2009-12", "spread_bps": 241, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2010-05", "spread_bps": 708, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2011-09", "spread_bps": 7318, "source_id": "bis2011" },
      { "date": "2012-01", "spread_bps": 5368, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2020-03", "spread_bps": 180, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2026-06", "spread_bps": 28.89, "source_id": "investing2026" }
    ],
    "Portugal": [
      { "date": "2009-12", "spread_bps": 79, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2010-12", "spread_bps": 468, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2011-09", "spread_bps": 1308, "source_id": "bis2011" },
      { "date": "2012-06", "spread_bps": 487, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2020-03", "spread_bps": 45, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2026-06", "spread_bps": 16.83, "source_id": "wgb2026" }
    ],
    "Ireland": [
      { "date": "2009-12", "spread_bps": 156, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2010-12", "spread_bps": 570, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2011-09", "spread_bps": 978, "source_id": "bis2011" },
      { "date": "2012-06", "spread_bps": 316, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2020-03", "spread_bps": 35, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2026-06", "spread_bps": 12.5, "source_id": "indicative2026" }
    ],
    "Spain": [
      { "date": "2008-09", "spread_bps": 35, "source_id": "ecb1271" },
      { "date": "2011-09", "spread_bps": 429, "source_id": "bis2011" },
      { "date": "2012-06", "spread_bps": 380, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2020-03", "spread_bps": 75, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2026-06", "spread_bps": 15.85, "source_id": "investing2026" }
    ],
    "Cyprus": [
      { "date": "2011-09", "spread_bps": 185, "source_id": "citizendium_ecb" },
      { "date": "2013-03", "spread_bps": 1578, "source_id": "nber19125" },
      { "date": "2020-03", "spread_bps": 95, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2026-06", "spread_bps": 32.0, "source_id": "indicative2026" }
    ],
    "Italy": [
      { "date": "2008-09", "spread_bps": 95, "source_id": "bis2018" },
      { "date": "2011-09", "spread_bps": 503, "source_id": "bis2011" },
      { "date": "2012-07", "spread_bps": 480, "source_id": "imf2013" },
      { "date": "2020-03", "spread_bps": 155, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2026-06", "spread_bps": 29.29, "source_id": "investing2026" }
    ],
    "Germany": [
      { "date": "2008-09", "spread_bps": 28, "source_id": "ecb1271" },
      { "date": "2011-09", "spread_bps": 95, "source_id": "bis2011" },
      { "date": "2012-07", "spread_bps": 70, "source_id": "bis2011" },
      { "date": "2020-03", "spread_bps": 18, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2026-06", "spread_bps": 7.76, "source_id": "investing2026" }
    ],
    "United States": [
      { "date": "2008-09", "spread_bps": 42, "source_id": "bis2018" },
      { "date": "2011-09", "spread_bps": 45, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2020-03", "spread_bps": 58, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2026-06", "spread_bps": 38.21, "source_id": "investing2026" }
    ],
    "China": [
      { "date": "2008-09", "spread_bps": 85, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2011-09", "spread_bps": 120, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2020-03", "spread_bps": 65, "source_id": "investing" },
      { "date": "2026-06", "spread_bps": 40.60, "source_id": "investing2026" }
    ]
  },
  "sources": {
    "bis2003": {
      "author": "Bank for International Settlements",
      "title": "Sovereign credit default swaps: market structure and restructurings",
      "publication": "BIS Quarterly Review, December 2003",
      "url": "https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0312g.pdf"
    },
    "bis2011": {
      "author": "Bank for International Settlements",
      "title": "The impact of sovereign credit risk on bank funding conditions",
      "publication": "BIS Quarterly Review, December 2011",
      "url": "https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1112a.pdf"
    },
    "bis2018": {
      "author": "Bank for International Settlements",
      "title": "The credit default swap market: what a difference a decade makes",
      "publication": "BIS Quarterly Review, June 2018",
      "url": "https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1806b.pdf"
    },
    "ecb1271": {
      "author": "European Central Bank",
      "title": "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds",
      "publication": "ECB Working Paper No. 1271, July 2010",
      "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1271.pdf"
    },
    "ecb1710": {
      "author": "European Central Bank",
      "title": "Sovereign CDS spreads and financial stability during the crisis",
      "publication": "ECB Working Paper No. 1710, 2014",
      "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1710.pdf"
    },
    "citizendium_ecb": {
      "author": "Eurozone crisis compilation (ECB/BIS data)",
      "title": "CDS spread tables for Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain",
      "publication": "Cross-check with ECB WP 1271 and BIS Q4 2011",
      "url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1271.pdf"
    },
    "nber19125": {
      "author": "NBER Working Paper 19125",
      "title": "Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the Euro crisis",
      "publication": "GIIPS CDS sample statistics 2005–2012",
      "url": "https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19125/w19125.pdf"
    },
    "imf2013": {
      "author": "International Monetary Fund",
      "title": "Italian Sovereign Spreads",
      "publication": "IMF Working Paper 13/84, 2013",
      "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Italian-Sovereign-Spreads-40459"
    },
    "pelizzon2013": {
      "author": "Pelizzon, Subrahmanyam, Tomio & Uno",
      "title": "Sovereign credit risk, liquidity, and ECB intervention",
      "publication": "Journal of Financial Economics, 2016",
      "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X16301039"
    },
    "esrb2025": {
      "author": "European Systemic Risk Board",
      "title": "Credit default swaps – analysis and policies",
      "publication": "ESRB Report, November 2025",
      "url": "https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/reports/esrb.report250411_creditdefaultswaps.en.pdf"
    },
    "investing2026": {
      "author": "Investing.com",
      "title": "World Credit Default Swap Rates (CDS)",
      "publication": "Retrieved June 2026",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/world-cds"
    },
    "wgb2026": {
      "author": "World Government Bonds",
      "title": "Portugal 5 Years CDS",
      "publication": "Retrieved June 2026",
      "url": "https://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/cds-historical-data/portugal/5-years/"
    }
  }
}