{
  "description": "Government debt stock and debt-service burden for sovereign CDS sample. Paired with sovereign-cds-snapshot.json for scatter and narrative charts.",
  "as_of": "2025-2026",
  "note": "Debt/GDP and interest ratios are IMF WEO / national statistics (2024–2025 actuals or latest projections). Interest USD/EUR uses approximate FX (EUR/USD 1.08, CNY/USD 7.25). China LGFV-adjusted debt is illustrative upper bound.",
  "sources_summary": "IMF WEO Oct 2025; CBO Budget Outlook 2026; Eurostat; Istat; Bundesbank; BMF Germany; IMF Egypt/Brazil country reports",
  "countries": [
    {
      "country": "United States",
      "iso": "US",
      "region": "us_china",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 124.0,
      "debt_gdp_projection_pct": 140.0,
      "debt_gdp_projection_year": 2031,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 3.25,
      "interest_gdp_projection_pct": 4.6,
      "interest_gdp_projection_year": 2036,
      "interest_budget_pct": 14.5,
      "interest_revenue_pct": 20.5,
      "interest_local": { "amount": 952, "currency": "USD", "unit": "billion", "year": 2025 },
      "interest_local_projection": { "amount": 1050, "currency": "USD", "unit": "billion", "year": 2026 },
      "interest_usd_bn": 952,
      "tech_note": "CHIPS Act, AI capex boom; fiscal drag from rising net interest",
      "source_id": "cbo2026"
    },
    {
      "country": "China",
      "iso": "CN",
      "region": "us_china",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 99.0,
      "debt_gdp_broad_pct": 120.0,
      "debt_gdp_broad_note": "Includes LGFV / broader public sector (CFR/IMF estimates)",
      "interest_gdp_pct": 1.0,
      "interest_budget_pct": 4.5,
      "interest_revenue_pct": null,
      "interest_local": { "amount": 1349, "currency": "CNY", "unit": "billion", "year": 2025 },
      "interest_usd_bn": 186,
      "tech_note": "EVs, batteries, renewables; property/LGFV debt overhang",
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Germany",
      "iso": "DE",
      "region": "europe_core",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 63.5,
      "debt_gdp_projection_pct": 76.0,
      "debt_gdp_projection_year": 2028,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 1.0,
      "interest_budget_pct": 6.5,
      "interest_revenue_pct": null,
      "interest_local": { "amount": 46, "currency": "EUR", "unit": "billion", "year": 2025 },
      "interest_usd_bn": 50,
      "tech_note": "Industry 4.0 base; defence borrowing rising; EU tech regulation friction",
      "source_id": "bundesbank2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "France",
      "iso": "FR",
      "region": "europe_core",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 112.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 2.2,
      "interest_budget_pct": 5.5,
      "interest_usd_bn": 72,
      "tech_note": "Nuclear, aerospace; fiscal consolidation pressure",
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Italy",
      "iso": "IT",
      "region": "europe_periphery",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 137.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 3.9,
      "interest_budget_pct": 7.6,
      "interest_usd_bn": 82,
      "tech_note": "CDS compressed but interest still 7.6% of spending",
      "source_id": "istat2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Greece",
      "iso": "GR",
      "region": "europe_periphery",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 146.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 4.5,
      "interest_budget_pct": 6.5,
      "interest_usd_bn": 11,
      "tech_note": "Debt still highest in sample; CDS ~29 bps",
      "source_id": "eurostat2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Spain",
      "iso": "ES",
      "region": "europe_periphery",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 101.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 2.5,
      "interest_budget_pct": 5.0,
      "interest_usd_bn": 38,
      "tech_note": "Recovery narrative; debt still above 100% GDP",
      "source_id": "eurostat2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Portugal",
      "iso": "PT",
      "region": "europe_periphery",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 99.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 2.5,
      "interest_budget_pct": 4.5,
      "interest_usd_bn": 9,
      "source_id": "eurostat2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Ireland",
      "iso": "IE",
      "region": "europe_periphery",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 32.9,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 1.5,
      "interest_budget_pct": 3.0,
      "interest_usd_bn": 5,
      "tech_note": "Low debt; tech FDI hub (US hyperscalers)",
      "source_id": "eurostat2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Cyprus",
      "iso": "CY",
      "region": "europe_periphery",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 67.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 2.0,
      "interest_budget_pct": 4.0,
      "interest_usd_bn": 1,
      "source_id": "eurostat2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Japan",
      "iso": "JP",
      "region": "g7",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 236.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 1.8,
      "interest_budget_pct": 8.0,
      "interest_usd_bn": 95,
      "tech_note": "High debt, low rates; CDS +28% YoY — repricing",
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "United Kingdom",
      "iso": "GB",
      "region": "g7",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 98.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 2.8,
      "interest_budget_pct": 6.0,
      "interest_usd_bn": 78,
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Brazil",
      "iso": "BR",
      "region": "em",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 79.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 8.0,
      "interest_budget_pct": 12.0,
      "interest_revenue_pct": 30.0,
      "interest_usd_bn": 105,
      "tech_note": "Among highest interest/GDP globally",
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Egypt",
      "iso": "EG",
      "region": "em",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 86.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 7.0,
      "interest_budget_pct": 25.0,
      "interest_revenue_pct": 74.0,
      "interest_usd_bn": 25,
      "tech_note": "Debt service dominates revenues",
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Turkey",
      "iso": "TR",
      "region": "em",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 30.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 3.5,
      "interest_budget_pct": 12.0,
      "interest_revenue_pct": null,
      "interest_usd_bn": null,
      "tech_note": "Low headline debt/GDP; FX and inflation risk",
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Indonesia",
      "iso": "ID",
      "region": "em",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 41.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 1.5,
      "interest_budget_pct": 10.0,
      "interest_revenue_pct": null,
      "interest_usd_bn": 18,
      "tech_note": "CDS +22% YoY; debt still moderate",
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "India",
      "iso": "IN",
      "region": "em",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 83.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 3.5,
      "interest_budget_pct": 18.0,
      "interest_usd_bn": 95,
      "tech_note": "Digital stack; fiscal consolidation ongoing",
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    },
    {
      "country": "Mexico",
      "iso": "MX",
      "region": "em",
      "debt_gdp_pct": 50.0,
      "interest_gdp_pct": 2.0,
      "interest_budget_pct": 10.0,
      "interest_usd_bn": 28,
      "source_id": "imf2025"
    }
  ],
  "europe_tech_context": {
    "description": "Qualitative anchors for Europe technological competitiveness narrative (not CDS data).",
    "items": [
      {
        "label": "EU R&D intensity",
        "value": "2.2% of GDP (2023)",
        "compare": "US ~3.5%, China ~2.6%",
        "source_id": "eurostat_rnd"
      },
      {
        "label": "EU Chips Act target",
        "value": "20% global production by 2030",
        "compare": "EU ~10% today",
        "source_id": "eu_chips"
      },
      {
        "label": "Top tech firms by market cap",
        "value": "US and China dominate",
        "compare": "No EU firm in global top 10 (2025)",
        "source_id": "market_cap"
      }
    ]
  },
  "sources": {
    "cbo2026": {
      "author": "Congressional Budget Office",
      "title": "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036",
      "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172"
    },
    "imf2025": {
      "author": "International Monetary Fund",
      "title": "World Economic Outlook Database, October 2025",
      "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO"
    },
    "istat2025": {
      "author": "Istat / Eurostat",
      "title": "Italy government deficit and debt, 2025",
      "url": "https://www.istat.it/"
    },
    "bundesbank2025": {
      "author": "Deutsche Bundesbank / BMF",
      "title": "Public finances Germany 2025",
      "url": "https://www.bundesbank.de/"
    },
    "eurostat2025": {
      "author": "Eurostat",
      "title": "Government finance statistics",
      "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/government-finance-statistics"
    },
    "eurostat_rnd": {
      "author": "Eurostat",
      "title": "R&D expenditure — % of GDP",
      "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=R%26D_expenditure"
    },
    "eu_chips": {
      "author": "European Commission",
      "title": "European Chips Act",
      "url": "https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/europe-fit-digital-age/european-chips-act_en"
    }
  }
}